Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

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Deadline for the application has passed.
Course No.: JV 18.28
Location: Vienna, Austria
Date: October 1, 2018-October 12, 2018 (2 Weeks)
Language: English

Target Audience:

Mid- to senior-level officials involved in monetary policy decision making and staff involved in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting, or operating macroeconomic models.


Participants should have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. It is strongly recommended that applicants complete the online Macroeconometric Forecasting (MFx) course before applying for the MPAF. Participants should be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave although specific knowledge of these is not required.

Course Description:

This course, presented by the IMF Institute for Capacity Development, provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting; it emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the model to fit their own monetary policy framework. Country case studies are used to reinforce participant understanding and to help them compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

Course Objectives:

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

  • Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
  • Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using a hands-on Matlab-based model.
  • Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using a variety of estimation-based econometric techniques supported and expert judgment.
  • Use the model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of such key macro variables as output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
  • Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
  • Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis using their own national data, when they return home.

Important Note for Online Courses:

For Online Learning (OL) courses, which are delivered through the edX platform, you will need an additional piece of information to register: you will be prompted for your edX.org username. If you do not already have a username, please go to https://courses.edx.org/register and sign up for a free account. Once you have created an account, you may complete the IMF Institute application. If you already have an edX account, your username can be found on the top right of the screen after logging in.

Important Note for Internal Economics Training Courses:

Internal Economics Training (IT) courses are self-financed. The IMF will not charge officials for attending courses. However, all travel, insurance, hotel, and living costs will need to be covered by the agency sponsoring the participants.