Macroeconometric Forecasting (MFx)

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Course No.: OL 17.111
Location: Course Conducted Online, United States
Date: February 8, 2017-April 12, 2017 (9 Weeks)
Language: English

Target Audience:

This special offering of the MFx is conducted as a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC). It is open to all audiences. Participation is free of charge, and there are no limits on the number of participants per country or agency. All government officials are welcome to register. The course is particularly relevant to officials involved in developing forecasts that are used in the design and implementation of macroeconomic policy.


Participants are expected to have a background in undergraduate statistics and basic econometrics is assumed. Access to a computer with a reliable Internet connection with Google Chrome web browser is essential. Demonstrations and applications will be conducted using EViews-a popular software for estimating and simulating forecasting models in Windows. Temporary licenses for EViews will be made available for the duration of the course.

Course Description:

This online course, presented by the IMF's Institute for Capacity Development, aims at strengthening participants' macroeconomic forecasting and modeling skills using modern econometric techniques. Lectures include a discussion of underlying theory and demonstrations of how to conduct empirical analyses using EViews.

The course focuses on four aspects of empirical model building and forecasting:



  • - data and model properties, including stationarity/non-stationarity and co-integration;

  • dynamic specifications, including the use of error correction models;

  • model evaluation, design and simulation; and

  • forecast uncertainty and policy analysis.


The expected workload for this course should be 8-10 hours per week.


Course Objectives: Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:






  • Forecast time series and multiple equation models using EViews.

  • Assess the statistical characteristics of time series and apply appropriate methods for forecasting.

  • Construct a macroeconometric model using ARMA, VAR, and VECM methods.

  • Evaluate the forecasting performance of a model using a variety of statistical measures.




Important Note for Online Courses:

For Online Learning (OL) courses, which are delivered through the edX platform, you will need an additional piece of information to register: you will be prompted for your edX.org username. If you do not already have a username, please go to https://courses.edx.org/register and sign up for a free account. Once you have created an account, you may complete the IMF Institute application. If you already have an edX account, your username can be found on the top right of the screen after logging in.

Important Note for Internal Economics Training Courses:

Internal Economics Training (IT) courses are self-financed. The IMF will not charge officials for attending courses. However, all travel, insurance, hotel, and living costs will need to be covered by the agency sponsoring the participants.