Macroeconometric Forecasting (MFx)

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Deadline for the application has passed.
Course No.: OL 18.03
Location: Course Conducted Online, United States
Date: February 28, 2018-May 2, 2018 (9 Weeks)
Language: English

Target Audience:

All government officials are welcome to register. The course is particularly relevant for officials involved in developing forecasts that are used to design and implement macroeconomic policy. The course is offered in English.


Participants are expected to have a background in undergraduate statistics and basic econometrics. Access to a computer with a reliable Internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser is essential. Demonstrations and applications will be conducted using EViews--popular software for estimating and simulating forecasting models in Windows. Temporary licenses for EViews will be made available for the duration of the course.

Course Description:

This course, presented by the IMF Institute for Capacity Development, is designed to reinforce the macroeconomic forecasting and modeling skills of participants and their use of modern econometric techniques. Lectures discuss the underlying theory and demonstrations show how to conduct empirical analyses using EViews. The course focuses on four aspects of empirical model building and forecasting:

  • data and model properties, such as stationarity/non-stationarity and co-integration;
  • dynamic specifications, especially use of error correction models;
  • model evaluation, design, and simulation; and
  • forecast uncertainty and policy analysis

The expected workload for this course is 8-10 hours per week.

This course is a prerequisite for selected face-to-face Macroeconometric Forecasting and Analysis (MFA) courses and is strongly recommended for some other courses. Please see individual face-to-face course listings for details. In general, successful completion of an online course will be viewed favorably when applying to face-to-face ICD courses at headquarters or regional centers.

Course Objectives:

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

  • Forecast time series and multiple equation models using EViews.
  • Assess the statistical characteristics of time series and apply appropriate methods for forecasting.
  • Construct a macroeconometric model using ARMA, VAR, and VECM methods.
  • Use a variety of statistical techniques to evaluate the performance of a forecasting model.

Important Note for Online Courses:

For Online Learning (OL) courses, which are delivered through the edX platform, you will need an additional piece of information to register: you will be prompted for your edX.org username. If you do not already have a username, please go to https://courses.edx.org/register and sign up for a free account. Once you have created an account, you may complete the IMF Institute application. If you already have an edX account, your username can be found on the top right of the screen after logging in.

Important Note for Internal Economics Training Courses:

Internal Economics Training (IT) courses are self-financed. The IMF will not charge officials for attending courses. However, all travel, insurance, hotel, and living costs will need to be covered by the agency sponsoring the participants.